Friday, February 4, 2011

Alfa-Forex: Forex participants are waiting for release of unemployment data in the U.S.

EUR / USD: We expect that during the European session, the trade will be relatively quiet. Prior to the release news from the U.S. unemployment do not exclude some correction after yesterday's fall to a level of 1.3680. In case of bad data is expected to return to 1.3800, otherwise - continue to decline 1.3440.
GBP / USD: The pair was fixed near the mark of 1.6140. Sale in case of passing the level 1.6120, target - 1.6080 and then 1.6040. Purchase, in the case of correction, above $ 1.6150, the goal - 1.6200.
USD / JPY: the Asian session the pair started trading in the range 81.50 - 81.70. The main support for the pair is in the area 81.40/30 passing it opens the way to 80.80. Buying in the case of rollback, with sales around the top border.

Whether Russia can compete with the U.S. through its own spacecraft?

"Space Troops Commander of the Russian Federation Oleg Ostapenko hinted last week that Russia could develop a spaceship, a similar drone secret U.S. Air Force X-37B, which have been successfully tested in the past year," - says The Christian Science Monitor.

As reported by RIA Novosti, in his words, in this direction something has been done, but whether Russia can take advantage of this, only time will tell.

Andrei Ionin, an independent expert on space technology, says Ostapenko allusion to the Russian version of the X-37B is difficult to interpret, the author writes Fred Weir.

"The logic for Space Research suggests that Russia and the United States at the same time doing the same thing - he says. - They are building a space shuttle - and we are building a space shuttle, and so on. But such comments are made Ostapenko, should follow the show and the relevant official application. With the current state of affairs, who knows what he meant. Maybe it's just PR? "

Source: The Christian Science Monitor

Infrastructure development has stalled

<strong>Infrastructure development has stalled</strong>
On the pop-up yesterday, the EU summit of heads of states and governments on energy, said in an article published today in the Frankfurter Allgemeine. Europe, writes the author Hendrik Kafzak, declares its commitment to "continue to move towards a pan-European energy market." However, as suggested by a journalist, it is "a standstill in almost all directions."

The last summit of this level on energy held in the spring of 2006 in Brussels, the newspaper reminds. Then the European Commission President Barroso has announced "the birth of the European energy policy," although the summit participants limited themselves to only "vague" calls for greater competition in energy savings and better coordination of external energy policy.

Since then, the author notes the publication, none of these areas the EU are far advanced. The only significant achievement of which mentions the publication of this project Nabucco, the pipeline, which should make the EU more independent from Russian gas - today he is "ready for signature."

In Europe, it adds in the article, there is a shortage of electricity and gas networks, which prevents the final formation of the European internal market. Some countries, such as the Baltic, still have no connection with European networks and therefore "entirely dependent on Russia."

The current European Commissioner for Energy Ettinger autumn announced proposals to accelerate the construction of networks. These ideas must now support the summit. Implementation of proposals Ettinger suggests infrastructure investment by 2020 in the amount of 210 billion euros. This sum, said the publication, does not include the cost of the so-called "intelligent networks", which should amount to almost 10 billion euros per year.

U.S. Dollar

Those who use dollars outside the U.S. continuously pay tribute to the U.S.. It is expressed in the form of inflation at a rate of 1.25 million dollars per minute. This is a result of the rapid razrostaniya U.S. foreign debt. Half of the total imports of the United States simply added to the external debt and paid to foreign holders of dollars by inflation.

1. Global demand for dollars

Until 1971, each dollar predstavyal a fixed amount of gold. States had enormous gold reserves, which covered the entire amount of dollars banned from circulation. When foreign banks turned out more dollars than they wanted, they could exchange them for gold. This was the main reason why the dollar has been adopted worldwide.

In 1971 the gold backing the dollar rates were increased. In fact, it was a stroke of President Nixon's term: the cost of the war in Vietnam was higher than the U.S. could not afford, because of what had been printed more dollars than the gold reserves allowed. Since the dollar's value is determined by the laws of supply and demand in the markets of exchange.

In the early seventies States is still producing enough oil for their own consumption. To protect their own oil enterprises against foreign competition, oil imports were limited. In return, the removal of restrictions, the country OPEK promised that they would only accept dollars in exchange for their oil. The dollar was the most used currency in world trade. Do you think it a trifle?

Since 1971, all wishing to import oil, must first buy dollars. Here comes a joyous moment for the U.S.. Almost all need oil, so everyone wants dollars.

Buyers of oil around the world provide their yens, crowns, francs and other currencies. In return, they receive a green paper. These dollars they buy oil from countries OPEK. Countries OPEK again spend the money. Of course, they can do it in the U.S. but also in other countries too. Everybody wants dollars, as all need oil again.

2. Free Purchase

Trade in oil to a large number of dollars. Many dollars will stay in constant circulation outside the U.S., as it were between countries OPEK and other states. USA consumes 25% of all petroleum products in the world. In 2004, they mined about half of their own needs themselves. (This trend began to deteriorate rapidly: in 2006, States had to import 60%)

Early on it was not enough dollars. They had to be printed. It costs U.S. paper and ink. And then pops a huge advantage: there is only one way to bring these new pretty green cash from the country - the United States to make purchases abroad. And while these green money stays abroad, the States do not provide anything in return. Consequently, these purchases are free!

This free zakupanie not manifested only in the beginning. As soon as the required additional dollars for oil trade, because of rising prices or volumes, this means free purchases for the U.S..

The same thing happens when the dollar amount increases in world trade. Globalization, free world trade on a global scale privatization of social services such as gas, water and electricity, telephone and transport services - it absorbs a huge amount of dollars. Every minute, new dollars disappear from all corners of the globe. In the first place, it means every time the free goods to the U.S.!

Debt

Of course, these purchases provide duty free for USA. Since one day, other states could use the money to purchase goods in the U.S.. Then, finally, the U.S. will have to provide "something" in return.

Trade balance

So, to avoid problems, the U.S. would need to care about what they purchase and sale remains balanced. After 1971, when it was started up more dollars in circulation, but in 1973 the U.S. managed to sell more than buy. After that, the situation went down, and every year the U.S. bought more foreign goods, which are generally not paid.

In 2004 alone, the trade deficit was $ 650 billion! [4] With a population of 300 million people, this means that on average, each U.S. citizen bought foreign goods in 2167 dollars, without paying them a dime!

During the same period of no improvement of balance of payments was not. Thus, the foreign debt of the United States grew in one year at $ 650.929.500.000. This is 1.25 million dollars per minute!

U.S. trade deficit is the highest, along with China ($ 162 billion), Japan ($ 76 billion), Canada ($ 66 billion), Germany ($ 46 billion), Mexico ($ 45 billion), Venetsueloy ($ 20 billion), South Korea ($ 20 billion), Ireland ($ 19 billion), Italy ($ 17 billion) and Malaysia ($ 17 billion) [5].

Dollar exchange rate

The cost of money each state which buys more than sell, begins to decrease. If a currency is hard to do something, then demand falls and the exchange rate worsens. But what applies to other currencies, not a decree for the U.S. dollar. While the whole world needs dollars to buy oil, they will always be in demand.

U.S. consume? oil production in the world. When the dollar goes up, price increases only for the rest? oil consumers. For the U.S. the price remains the same.

When the oil price increases in treatment need to enter new dollars. If oil consumption remains unchanged, these additional dollars can be printed out and adding to this cycle, without loss to the exchange rate. Since the U.S. imports 1 / 8 of oil consumed worldwide, 7 / 8 extra dollars are needed outside the U.S.. This means that for every increase in oil prices, the U.S. fund is to increase new greenback and selling at seven times as many new dollars abroad. Free procurement and the creation of debt!

The U.S. has a wide range of tricks to stimulate the exchange rate. Enter more dollars in circulation when the stakes are higher than desired. Purchasing back dollars themselves when demand falls, for example by issuing bonds.

However, this solution costs money - it's interest. All these interests together have reached such high levels that their uplat need to constantly issue new loans. U.S. debt grows faster and faster every day!

3. Bankrupt the continuation of

Despite this, the dollar is still trading as usual. They still need to purchase oil and gas. Thus, the error introduced in prividno strong exchange rate, world trade continues to do their transactions in dollars. Just Business?

Following the usual logic of economics, for living more dollar should be to bring in more exports from the U.S. and less imports of U.S., as foreign importers can then buy goods cheaper in the U.S.. However, while foreigners are mad enough to accept dollars, the U.S. will have no problems to produce more and more of these green debt securities.

Pay slightly more for Chinese socks and Japanese electronics? No problem. U.S. simply increase imports from them and the foreign debt a bit more. More dollars given for the product lead to inflation. A one percent inflation rate means that at the same time the cost of a gigantic foreign debt decreased by one percent. Thus, the U.S. is unprofitable to limit its imports!

In the oil trade, in general, the decline of the dollar has logical consequences. Eskportery oil will not agree to lose profits. If the dollar falls by 10 percent, then they raise the price of oil by 10 percent, and this will remain the price.

If the U.S. dollar will no longer need to purchase oil, there will be no use for the rest of the world trade in the use of the dollar - only one loss. Dollars no longer have any weight in gold and an incredible debt would lead to logical disaster. The dollar would have utterly failed.

And if the aliens will no longer accept dollars, the U.S. can not print dollars to buy goods at the expense of the rest of the world. States can not pay its expensive army. They will lose their influence.

The disappearance of the debt

Dollar collapse would be a wonderful side effect for States. If the U.S. will not cost anything, external debt, too, has dissipated. This debt generated dollars located abroad. At worst, they will cost no more paper used. Unfortunately, in this currency collapse followed by a string of collapses of banks, enterprises and international organizations pledging their fate dollar.

4. Dollar balance in Japan and China

A significant group of dollar purchasers of the formation of central bankers in various countries. Central banks keep strategic reserves. These reserves, they can buy back its own currency, if large amounts of the currency hit the market exchange. Thus they are protected from depreciation of its currency.

These reserves are mainly kept in a currency that is accepted the best in the world, which means that today is the dollar. However, in China and Japan, as well as in Taiwan, South Korea and other countries, these dollar reserves have far exceeded the necessary strategic quantity.

This is so not because central banks like to keep as much in U.S. dollars. Vice versa. These countries have large exports, and therefore there is an intense infusion of dollars. They must be exchanged for local money to pay off workers and buy raw materials. Strong demand for local currency would increase its logical course, on whether and goods would become more expensive for foreigners. Therefore, in order to avoid threats to the export position of the country, local central banks try to maintain the rate of their money stable. They perceive it is buying the incoming dollars.



For these countries is a big problem, since all these central banks accumulated dollars produce local money. So, in fact, work goes to local inflation of money as payment for their exported goods.

Over time, they export their many months of labor and materials are not getting paid for it all. These dollars the central banks do not bring any special profits. They can be exchanged for bonds and U.S. equities to give a little interest. But even this interest can not be called the really profitable. U.S. just take these percentages from spiraling increase in external debt, ie, the dollar inflation.

At the same time the cost of dollar accumulation is related to movements of the dollar. With that, there is a constant danger of collapse of the dollar. Asian central banks are dependent on the need to reduce their dollar reserves, needs to buy dollars to maintain the stability of its currency and buying U.S. money in those cases when the dollar is threatened by the fall in world currency markets.

Parallel to these States allow their foreign debt increase faster and faster. How can this continue dologo?

At the same time, experts of Asian Development Bank believe that the dollar must fall by 30-40 percent! [8] Because of this failure is the risk that banks and businesses will want otdelatsya from their dollars as quickly as possible, and central banks no longer want or can not prevent a complete collapse. Besides, who would sell their dollars first lucky one who hesitates, waits failure.

5. Veiled conflicts

To make a permanent demand for dollars saved, should exercise its oil trade in dollars. Therefore, the U.S. is trying to have as much impact as its own world oil markets IPE and NYMEX, as well as on the powerful people in countries that export oil. These United States at the same time secures oil. Also you can get dohodonosnye contracts from local governments, and these same contracts can extract maximum benefits from oil production.

Fear is the mind naddelyaet

But when local governments no longer want to sell their oil in dollars, for the U.S., this becomes a problem. In this case, the president of U.S. will not explain how the U.S. dependence on demand for dollars. Conflict is always hidden. And so it was hidden, is always an emotional theme is chosen. In the past it was the threat of communism, today it is a threat terorizma, fundamentalists and other popular horror stories such as "the enemy has weapons of mass destruction" and "the enemy is trying to build rockets.

The fact that no rational proof of such statements does not matter. The emotions always win. Even the fact that these charges may be made to address themselves as accusers, and then proved, one little noticed. There was no evidence that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction, but the U.S. - the prosecutors themselves - have weapons of mass destruction, and even used it. There is no evidence that Iran has the intention of making nuclear bombs, but prosecutors - United States, have a nuclear weapon and used it and, subsequently, repeatedly threatened to use it again.

But then again, when the statements are mixed with emotions, people turn off their minds. Then, the mind is no longer an argument for peace. All it's only catechumens charges. And as a result of the word is given only to experts on weapons of mass destruction and nuclear bombs, then almost nobody can reveal what is really a cause of conflict.

Venezuela In Venezuela, over the years, the U.S. is trying to overthrow President Chavez, under the pretext that he was a dangerous communist. Chavez nationalized the oil industry and has established barter deals for oil exports in return for medical services from Cuba and others. In barter transactions do not need to use the dollar and the U.S. did not benefit from the trade of oil.

Iraq

Until 1990, the U.S. had lucrative commercial contracts with Saddam Hussein. He was a good ally. For example, in 1980, he tried to free the hostages at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran.

But in 1989 Saddam accused Kuwait of "flood" the oil market, thereby pulling oil prices down. The following year Saddam tried to annex Kuwait. This led to an immediate turn of relations with the United States. This annexation Saddam would have acquired a 20% of world oil reserves. The Iraqis were driven out of Kuwait, U.S. troops supported by 134 states and are required to dovolstvovatsya some bread and water because of the UN arms embargo for over ten years.

While the U.S. has managed to regain its influence in Iraq, Saddam's transition to the euro 6 th November 2000 was the cause which led to the invasion States. The dollar began to float away and in July 2002 the situation deteriorated so much that the IMF warned that the dollar could collapse. A few days later at Downing Street were prodiskutirovany plans of attack. A month later, Cheney declared that there is no doubt that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction. This led the U.S. invasion of Iraq on March 19, 2003. States transferred to oil trade back into dollars on June 5, 2003.

There is a big difference between trading Iraqi oil with the euro and its trade with the U.S.. This will be explained below. (VIEW: "How to steal oil reserves?")

Iran

U.S. conflict with Iran since they were expelled from the country in 1979. According to the U.S., Iran is a dangerous country of fundamentalists.

Iran's geographical location between the Caspian Sea and the Indian Ocean, complicates U.S. ambitions to control large reserves of oil and gas on the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea. To pass these oil and gas to world markets, bypassing both Russia and Iran, the pipe had to pass through Afghanistan. Such plans have been built in the early nineties, but the pipes are still there.

At the same time the U.S. tries to prevent all competitive projects in other countries. Of course, this led to several conflicts of interests with Iran. George W. Bush used the pretext of the presence of Osama bin Laden, to deploy the war against Afghanistan. [14]

In 1999, Iran has stated publicly that also wants to adopt the euro instead of its oil. Iran sells 30% of its oil to Europe, the remaining amount goes mainly to India and China and not a drop is not going away in the U.S. because of the embargo established by the United States. Despite the threat of Bush's remarks, drawing in this state in his famous "axis of evil", Iran started to sell its oil in euros from spring 2003.

After that, Iran wanted to establish his own exchange of oil that would not be dependent on the IPE and NYMEX. It should start March 20, 2006. Bearing in mind the very weak dollar positions at the time, the success of this exchange could cause a crash the dollar and the U.S. respectively. Therefore, interstate naprezhennost was very high in early 2006. [15]

<strong>U.S Dollar</strong>

Ultimately neftebirzhi opening was postponed. Then, as quickly as possible, Putin opened the exchange of oil in Russia, which took the interest of the Iranian stock exchange.

The U.S. accuses Iran of wanting to build nuclear missiles. Since the U.S. does not have a major impact in order to switch the oil trade back into dollars, they probably are hoping that Iran's nuclear New projects will be bombed again [19] forcing the Iranians to consume its oil, instead of selling it in euros.

In addition, the hidden master plan for seizing the world nuclear fuel market, with the participation of several other states, using Iran as a pretext and verification

Russian bear awakens

Today, most Americans believe the United States is the "sole superpower", not having unmatched in the economically and militarily. But in fact this assertion is far from the truth. As we detailed account of China has become the dominant economic and military superpower. But there is another world superpower that the American people and American media are not taken seriously.

Russian bear has awakened, and yet most people in the U.S. continue to think of Russia as an enemy of the Cold War, which "we won" and who is now a mere shadow of the past. The last case with the arrest of Russian spies is a perfect example of what the American public treats Russia with insufficient respect.

It all looks like what the media tells us: "Oh, look, it's so cute, these little Russian spy in us, as though the Cold War still going on." But the truth is that underestimate Russia - a serious mistake.

Is the fact that today Russia economically and militarily stronger than ever before.

You doubt?

We quickly called the principal oil producer in the world.

Give a hint - it's not Saudi Arabia.

This is Russia.

In addition, Russia has recently become an oil exporter number one worldwide. But it is not all Russia - the main exporter of natural gas in the world. In a world heavily dependent on oil and natural resources, all this gives Russia a good trumps.

December 28, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin opened the first in modern Russia, the Pacific terminal for oil exports. Pacific port Kozmino currently allows Russia to export large amounts of oil to the growing economies of Asia.

And the United States.

Did you know that Russia is fast becoming one of the leading suppliers of oil to the United States? It's true.

Intelligently whether from the U.S. to become dependent on Russian oil? Probably not. But this is what happens.

And the Russian economy is growing rapidly. We have seen very high rates of economic growth in Russia in the first half of the past decade. And analysts predict that Russia's GDP will grow by more than 5% in 2010.

Most people think that the Russian town still divided, and the people there are queuing for bread. Now everything is different. According to Forbes, Moscow now ranks third among the most expensive cities in the world. Cost of living in Moscow than in any U.S. city. Who would have thought that you need more money to live in Moscow than in New York!

But Russia is not just again become an economic superpower. Russia uses its economic leverage to quickly upgrade and modernize its conventional and strategic weapons ...

In the past few years Russia is very serious updating and modernizing its strategic nuclear forces. U.S. officials continue to argue that America has a technological advantage in this area, but all agree that that gap is rapidly shrinking.

June 15 Russia introduced the world to its new nuclear submarine of the fourth generation, apparently, the least noisy of all the now existing.

A couple of weeks ago, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin got into the cockpit of the new fifth-generation fighter, and announced that he was far superior to the F-22 Raptor.

Russia has once again shown its strength throughout the world. We all saw what they were able to achieve in Georgia. But they were very busy in other places ...

Iran announced on Wednesday that the Bushehr nuclear power plant in a joint project with Russia, will be ready for operation in two months.

Russia has signed a major deal to supply weapons to Syria, under which it will supply Syria combat aircraft, anti-tank weapons and air defense systems.

After the historic visit of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Damascus, Russian energy minister announced that his country was "studying the issue of" building a nuclear power plant in Syria.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said recently that Russia and Turkey have become key strategic partners.

Russia reached agreement on a set of new agreements with new, more pro-Russian oriented government of Ukraine.

And yet, the U.S. does not view Russia seriously. According to Admiral James A. Winnefeld, head of the North American Command, the U.S., Russia continues to flights of strategic nuclear bombers near U.S. and Canadian airspace, since the Russian army seeks to preserve the "illusion of power."

The illusion of power? He was playing the fool? It is this dramatic underestimate the power of Russia, could ultimately end in sad.

The truth is that lack of understanding of the situation in the world begins with the very pinnacles of power. Barack Obama favors a plan that would reduce the size of the U.S. strategic nuclear arsenal to about 10 percent of what was in the midst of the Cold War. Most Americans (like most people who read this story), just consider that Russia is not a serious threat, but it shows how mistaken by most people.

In many ways, Russia is now in a much better position than the United States. Russia's government actually controls the economy so that the budget was in surplus during the period from 2001 to 2007 and the country has a very small public debt. Meanwhile, the U.S. accumulated the largest debt in world history.

Russia holds about $ 100 billion of debt.

God, how things have changed!

The most terrible thing is that Russia and China are cooperating on a range of economic and military projects as they seek to create "a counterbalance to U.S. influence in the world.

The truth is that the U.S. can no longer "do anything they want." Russia and China are more powerful country than it has ever been before, and they will not disappear any time soon. The world has changed. If the United States is not going to wake up and do not recognize this fact, can happen very serious consequences.

Translation: Arvid Hoglund Source: War and Peace